Being Wrong


my neighborhood
Image by woodleywonderworks via Flickr

After twenty years in the mortgage industry it’s probably time that I admitted that I have been wrong a few times. Specifically, in 2003, 2008 and 2010. If you were to ask me in each of those years what I thought about rates I would likely take off my glasses, massage the bridge of my nose thoughtfully and then say something along the lines of “I don’t think we will ever see rates this low again.” And yet, it’s now getting to the latter months of 2011 and rates have established new lows once again.

So, here I am, once again being asked by business partners and consumers alike what I think about the current rate environment. Will rates get even lower or will they skyrocket higher in the near future? The answer is, conveniently enough, “it depends.” Should the economy make an about-face, the job market improve and/or inflationary pressures increase, we will see rates climb. If; however, the economy becomes worse or fears of deflation resurface, we will likely see rates stay similar to the current rates. Quite honestly, no one can truly predict what rates will do. It’s like the weather – there are too many variables present at any given time in order to accurately forecast future weather.

My overall advice? If you find a rate that you feel comfortable with it’s best to lock. True, rates may yet improve again but it’s always a good practice to not get too greedy in times like this.

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One thought on “Being Wrong

  1. Amen, brother. The world never ceases to amaze me, and yes rates *could* fall farther. And yet, it’s a very satisfying way to live when you can say…”you know what? I’m happy with 4.25. that’s good enough for me” (or 4.5 or whatever). It’s all good.

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